Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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ChengDu ShengNuo Biotec Co.,Ltd. (688117.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$147.85 - $174.22$163.26
Multi-Stage$40.37 - $44.28$42.29
Blended Fair Value$102.77
Current Price$40.91
Upside151.22%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020201920182017
DPS143.25%0.00%0.250.210.200.000.000.000.000.210.000.00
YoY Growth--17.08%8.81%107,176.87%0.00%-100.00%-3.47%-98.57%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.20%1.02%1.14%0.00%0.00%0.01%0.01%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)120.09
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)25.29
(=) Cash Retained (M)94.80
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)24.0215.019.01
Cash Retained (M)94.8094.8094.80
(-) Cash Required (M)-24.02-15.01-9.01
(=) Excess Retained (M)70.7879.7985.80
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)136.32136.32136.32
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.520.590.63
LTM Dividend per Share0.190.190.19
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.520.590.63
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.700.770.81
WACC / Discount Rate5.20%5.20%5.20%
Growth Rate4.90%5.90%6.90%
Fair Value$147.85$163.26$174.22
Upside / Downside261.41%299.07%325.85%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)120.09127.17134.67142.61151.02159.93164.72
Payout Ratio21.06%34.84%48.63%62.42%76.21%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)25.2944.3165.4989.02115.09143.93152.37

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.20%5.20%5.20%
Growth Rate4.90%5.90%6.90%
Year 1 PV (M)41.7242.1242.52
Year 2 PV (M)58.0759.1860.30
Year 3 PV (M)74.3276.4778.65
Year 4 PV (M)90.4893.9897.58
Year 5 PV (M)106.54111.72117.09
PV of Terminal Value (M)5,131.985,381.315,640.23
Equity Value (M)5,503.115,764.776,036.38
Shares Outstanding (M)136.32136.32136.32
Fair Value$40.37$42.29$44.28
Upside / Downside-1.32%3.37%8.24%

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