Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Jiangsu Liance Electromechanical Technology Co., Ltd. (688113.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Electrical Equipment & PartsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$118.72 - $323.69$303.35
Multi-Stage$45.26 - $49.54$47.36
Blended Fair Value$175.35
Current Price$40.25
Upside335.66%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020201920182017
DPS13.15%0.00%0.580.190.120.000.190.310.290.140.000.00
YoY Growth--198.53%58.68%0.00%-100.00%-37.61%6.73%106.14%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.92%0.49%0.24%0.00%0.29%0.46%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)102.72
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)28.43
(=) Cash Retained (M)74.28
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)20.5412.847.70
Cash Retained (M)74.2874.2874.28
(-) Cash Required (M)-20.54-12.84-7.70
(=) Excess Retained (M)53.7461.4466.58
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)63.1163.1163.11
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.850.971.05
LTM Dividend per Share0.450.450.45
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.850.971.05
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.301.421.51
WACC / Discount Rate6.66%6.66%6.66%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$118.72$303.35$323.69
Upside / Downside194.95%653.66%704.21%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)102.72109.39116.51124.08132.14140.73144.95
Payout Ratio27.68%40.15%52.61%65.07%77.54%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)28.4343.9261.2980.74102.46126.66134.08

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.66%6.66%6.66%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)40.7941.1841.56
Year 2 PV (M)52.8753.8854.90
Year 3 PV (M)64.6966.5568.44
Year 4 PV (M)76.2479.1882.19
Year 5 PV (M)87.5491.7796.16
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,533.962,656.352,783.43
Equity Value (M)2,856.092,988.903,126.67
Shares Outstanding (M)63.1163.1163.11
Fair Value$45.26$47.36$49.54
Upside / Downside12.44%17.67%23.09%

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