Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Espressif Systems (Shanghai) Co., Ltd. (688018.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: SemiconductorsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$32.07 - $48.18$39.69
Multi-Stage$61.77 - $68.03$64.84
Blended Fair Value$52.27
Current Price$216.86
Upside-75.90%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS0.00%0.00%0.640.001.060.330.570.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%-100.00%221.68%-42.84%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.39%0.00%1.67%0.49%1.11%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)464.97
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)69.24
(=) Cash Retained (M)395.73
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)92.9958.1234.87
Cash Retained (M)395.73395.73395.73
(-) Cash Required (M)-92.99-58.12-34.87
(=) Excess Retained (M)302.74337.61360.86
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)121.97121.97121.97
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.482.772.96
LTM Dividend per Share0.570.570.57
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.482.772.96
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.053.343.53
WACC / Discount Rate7.32%7.32%7.32%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$32.07$39.69$48.18
Upside / Downside-85.21%-81.70%-77.78%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)464.97460.32455.72451.16446.65442.18455.45
Payout Ratio14.89%29.91%44.93%59.96%74.98%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)69.24137.69204.77270.50334.89397.97421.29

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.32%7.32%7.32%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)127.01128.30129.60
Year 2 PV (M)174.22177.80181.41
Year 3 PV (M)212.28218.84225.54
Year 4 PV (M)242.41252.46262.82
Year 5 PV (M)265.71279.55293.95
PV of Terminal Value (M)6,512.326,851.437,204.53
Equity Value (M)7,533.957,908.388,297.84
Shares Outstanding (M)121.97121.97121.97
Fair Value$61.77$64.84$68.03
Upside / Downside-71.52%-70.10%-68.63%

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