Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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SciClone Pharmaceuticals (Holdings) Limited (6600.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$17.56 - $27.99$22.30
Multi-Stage$45.82 - $50.54$48.14
Blended Fair Value$35.22
Current Price$12.61
Upside179.30%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2023202220212020201920182017
DPS-17.52%0.00%0.330.321.273.340.330.870.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--4.57%-75.15%-61.94%927.32%-62.44%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.62%3.53%18.30%21.13%1.94%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,121.90
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)215.02
(=) Cash Retained (M)906.88
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)224.38140.2484.14
Cash Retained (M)906.88906.88906.88
(-) Cash Required (M)-224.38-140.24-84.14
(=) Excess Retained (M)682.50766.65822.74
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)650.43650.43650.43
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.051.181.26
LTM Dividend per Share0.330.330.33
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.051.181.26
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.381.511.60
WACC / Discount Rate5.70%5.70%5.70%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$17.56$22.30$27.99
Upside / Downside39.28%76.87%122.00%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,121.901,110.681,099.581,088.581,077.691,066.921,098.93
Payout Ratio19.17%33.33%47.50%61.67%75.83%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)215.02370.22522.29671.29817.25960.231,016.51

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.70%5.70%5.70%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)346.72350.25353.79
Year 2 PV (M)458.09467.48476.98
Year 3 PV (M)551.39568.45585.85
Year 4 PV (M)628.68654.73681.59
Year 5 PV (M)691.77727.80765.30
PV of Terminal Value (M)27,128.7228,541.3830,012.28
Equity Value (M)29,805.3731,310.0932,875.79
Shares Outstanding (M)650.43650.43650.43
Fair Value$45.82$48.14$50.54
Upside / Downside263.39%281.74%300.83%

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