Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Takakita Co., Ltd. (6325.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Agricultural - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$994.21 - $2,786.45$1,545.74
Multi-Stage$774.49 - $848.26$810.69
Blended Fair Value$1,178.22
Current Price$375.00
Upside214.19%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS7.71%6.52%14.7312.709.9910.1210.1910.1610.1413.179.127.45
YoY Growth--15.93%27.21%-1.35%-0.69%0.32%0.16%-22.96%44.38%22.47%-4.91%
Dividend Yield--3.93%2.71%2.15%1.98%1.61%1.70%1.81%1.87%1.75%1.45%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)465.86
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)44.39
(=) Cash Retained (M)421.47
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)93.1758.2334.94
Cash Retained (M)421.47421.47421.47
(-) Cash Required (M)-93.17-58.23-34.94
(=) Excess Retained (M)328.30363.24386.53
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)11.3511.3511.35
(=) Excess Retained per Share28.9231.9934.05
LTM Dividend per Share3.913.913.91
(+) Excess Retained per Share28.9231.9934.05
(=) Adjusted Dividend32.8335.9037.96
WACC / Discount Rate7.97%7.97%7.97%
Growth Rate4.52%5.52%6.52%
Fair Value$994.21$1,545.74$2,786.45
Upside / Downside165.12%312.20%643.05%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)465.86491.57518.70547.32577.53609.40627.68
Payout Ratio9.53%25.62%41.72%57.81%73.91%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)44.39125.96216.39316.42426.83548.46580.61

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.97%7.97%7.97%
Growth Rate4.52%5.52%6.52%
Year 1 PV (M)115.55116.66117.76
Year 2 PV (M)182.12185.62189.16
Year 3 PV (M)244.31251.39258.61
Year 4 PV (M)302.35314.08326.16
Year 5 PV (M)356.42373.80391.85
PV of Terminal Value (M)7,592.407,962.638,347.16
Equity Value (M)8,793.169,204.199,630.70
Shares Outstanding (M)11.3511.3511.35
Fair Value$774.49$810.69$848.26
Upside / Downside106.53%116.18%126.20%

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