Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Toyota Industries Corporation (6201.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - ManufacturersSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$32,890.07 - $135,676.66$84,691.02
Multi-Stage$16,363.20 - $17,893.77$17,114.50
Blended Fair Value$50,902.76
Current Price$16,640.00
Upside205.91%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS11.69%10.65%285.91205.64185.07164.51154.23164.51159.37138.81124.55124.84
YoY Growth--39.04%11.11%12.50%6.66%-6.25%3.22%14.82%11.45%-0.24%20.11%
Dividend Yield--1.75%1.50%1.80%1.96%1.60%2.88%2.64%2.24%2.11%3.09%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)206,008.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)85,066.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)120,942.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)41,201.6025,751.0015,450.60
Cash Retained (M)120,942.00120,942.00120,942.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-41,201.60-25,751.00-15,450.60
(=) Excess Retained (M)79,740.4095,191.00105,491.40
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)301.97301.97301.97
(=) Excess Retained per Share264.07315.24349.35
LTM Dividend per Share281.71281.71281.71
(+) Excess Retained per Share264.07315.24349.35
(=) Adjusted Dividend545.78596.94631.05
WACC / Discount Rate7.25%7.25%7.25%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$32,890.07$84,691.02$135,676.66
Upside / Downside97.66%408.96%715.36%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)206,008.00219,398.52233,659.42248,847.29265,022.36282,248.81290,716.28
Payout Ratio41.29%51.03%60.78%70.52%80.26%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)85,066.00111,967.97142,007.78175,479.71212,703.01254,023.93268,912.56

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.25%7.25%7.25%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)103,418.12104,398.39105,378.66
Year 2 PV (M)121,148.45123,455.99125,785.30
Year 3 PV (M)138,272.40142,241.71146,286.25
Year 4 PV (M)154,805.04160,758.40166,881.85
Year 5 PV (M)170,761.11179,008.93187,572.42
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,252,738.614,458,147.484,671,417.82
Equity Value (M)4,941,143.735,168,010.905,403,322.30
Shares Outstanding (M)301.97301.97301.97
Fair Value$16,363.20$17,114.50$17,893.77
Upside / Downside-1.66%2.85%7.53%

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