Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Jiangsu Tongli Risheng Machinery Co., Ltd. (605286.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Manufacturing - Metal FabricationSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$99.71 - $257.70$241.50
Multi-Stage$37.88 - $41.40$39.61
Blended Fair Value$140.55
Current Price$42.15
Upside233.46%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS38.75%0.00%0.530.270.190.160.040.101.230.130.030.00
YoY Growth--96.09%41.22%17.59%315.56%-61.99%-91.61%880.97%385.75%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.35%1.24%0.50%0.63%0.12%0.48%5.68%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)219.26
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)165.56
(=) Cash Retained (M)53.70
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)43.8527.4116.44
Cash Retained (M)53.7053.7053.70
(-) Cash Required (M)-43.85-27.41-16.44
(=) Excess Retained (M)9.8526.3037.26
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)169.21169.21169.21
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.060.160.22
LTM Dividend per Share0.980.980.98
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.060.160.22
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.041.131.20
WACC / Discount Rate6.60%6.60%6.60%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$99.71$241.50$257.70
Upside / Downside136.57%472.95%511.38%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)219.26233.51248.69264.85282.07300.40309.42
Payout Ratio75.51%78.41%81.30%84.20%87.10%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)165.56183.08202.19223.01245.69270.36286.21

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.60%6.60%6.60%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)170.14171.75173.37
Year 2 PV (M)174.62177.94181.30
Year 3 PV (M)178.98184.12189.35
Year 4 PV (M)183.24190.29197.53
Year 5 PV (M)187.39196.44205.84
PV of Terminal Value (M)5,515.245,781.636,058.21
Equity Value (M)6,409.616,702.177,005.61
Shares Outstanding (M)169.21169.21169.21
Fair Value$37.88$39.61$41.40
Upside / Downside-10.13%-6.03%-1.78%

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