Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Zhejiang Yiming Food Co., Ltd. (605179.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.80 - $1.21$1.00
Multi-Stage$1.70 - $1.87$1.78
Blended Fair Value$1.39
Current Price$20.61
Upside-93.26%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS20.75%0.00%0.100.030.060.260.040.040.140.160.010.00
YoY Growth--205.43%-44.18%-76.40%571.56%-5.01%-70.57%-12.07%2,656.26%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.54%0.30%0.52%2.11%0.21%0.30%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)38.45
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)27.23
(=) Cash Retained (M)11.22
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)7.694.812.88
Cash Retained (M)11.2211.2211.22
(-) Cash Required (M)-7.69-4.81-2.88
(=) Excess Retained (M)3.536.418.33
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)418.52418.52418.52
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.010.020.02
LTM Dividend per Share0.070.070.07
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.010.020.02
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.070.080.08
WACC / Discount Rate7.00%7.00%7.00%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$0.80$1.00$1.21
Upside / Downside-96.12%-95.17%-94.11%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)38.4538.0637.6837.3036.9336.5637.66
Payout Ratio70.82%74.66%78.49%82.33%86.16%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)27.2328.4229.5830.7131.8232.9034.83

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.00%7.00%7.00%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)26.2926.5626.83
Year 2 PV (M)25.3225.8426.36
Year 3 PV (M)24.3225.0725.84
Year 4 PV (M)23.3124.2825.28
Year 5 PV (M)22.3023.4624.67
PV of Terminal Value (M)590.78621.54653.58
Equity Value (M)712.32746.75782.55
Shares Outstanding (M)418.52418.52418.52
Fair Value$1.70$1.78$1.87
Upside / Downside-91.74%-91.34%-90.93%

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