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Definitive Analysis

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GSP Automotive Group Wenzhou Co.,Ltd. (605088.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$124.28 - $303.86$284.76
Multi-Stage$44.42 - $48.61$46.48
Blended Fair Value$165.62
Current Price$40.00
Upside314.05%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS57.92%30.71%0.630.420.250.170.250.060.070.140.180.07
YoY Growth--48.36%68.13%47.72%-32.48%294.79%-5.45%-50.71%-24.61%160.80%61.79%
Dividend Yield--1.67%1.80%1.30%1.27%1.45%0.28%0.30%0.61%0.81%0.31%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)302.20
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)127.05
(=) Cash Retained (M)175.15
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)60.4437.7822.67
Cash Retained (M)175.15175.15175.15
(-) Cash Required (M)-60.44-37.78-22.67
(=) Excess Retained (M)114.71137.37152.48
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)197.79197.79197.79
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.580.690.77
LTM Dividend per Share0.640.640.64
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.580.690.77
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.221.341.41
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$124.28$284.76$303.86
Upside / Downside210.69%611.90%659.64%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)302.20321.84342.76365.04388.77414.04426.46
Payout Ratio42.04%51.63%61.23%70.82%80.41%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)127.05166.18209.86258.51312.60372.64394.48

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)154.52155.98157.45
Year 2 PV (M)181.44184.89188.38
Year 3 PV (M)207.82213.78219.86
Year 4 PV (M)233.67242.65251.89
Year 5 PV (M)258.99271.50284.49
PV of Terminal Value (M)7,750.118,124.448,513.10
Equity Value (M)8,786.549,193.259,615.18
Shares Outstanding (M)197.79197.79197.79
Fair Value$44.42$46.48$48.61
Upside / Downside11.06%16.20%21.53%

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