Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Qingdao Victall Railway Co., Ltd. (605001.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: RailroadsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.54 - $3.93$3.18
Multi-Stage$5.95 - $6.54$6.24
Blended Fair Value$4.71
Current Price$7.55
Upside-37.63%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS31.94%0.00%0.330.120.140.290.080.080.070.120.830.00
YoY Growth--170.00%-10.11%-53.08%270.28%-5.18%17.61%-40.33%-85.70%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--4.92%2.02%1.91%4.03%0.71%0.46%0.39%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)106.70
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)81.46
(=) Cash Retained (M)25.23
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)21.3413.348.00
Cash Retained (M)25.2325.2325.23
(-) Cash Required (M)-21.34-13.34-8.00
(=) Excess Retained (M)3.8911.9017.23
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)392.89392.89392.89
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.010.030.04
LTM Dividend per Share0.210.210.21
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.010.030.04
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.220.240.25
WACC / Discount Rate6.40%6.40%6.40%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$2.54$3.18$3.93
Upside / Downside-66.42%-57.88%-47.99%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)106.70105.63104.57103.53102.49101.47104.51
Payout Ratio76.35%79.08%81.81%84.54%87.27%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)81.4683.5385.5587.5289.4491.3296.67

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.40%6.40%6.40%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)77.7278.5179.30
Year 2 PV (M)74.0575.5777.11
Year 3 PV (M)70.4972.6774.89
Year 4 PV (M)67.0269.8072.66
Year 5 PV (M)63.6666.9870.43
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,983.862,087.162,194.73
Equity Value (M)2,336.802,450.692,569.12
Shares Outstanding (M)392.89392.89392.89
Fair Value$5.95$6.24$6.54
Upside / Downside-21.22%-17.38%-13.39%

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