Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Eurocrane (China) Co., Ltd. (603966.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$12.31 - $29.25$18.17
Multi-Stage$8.50 - $9.29$8.89
Blended Fair Value$13.53
Current Price$10.87
Upside24.46%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS42.34%27.05%0.270.250.200.190.070.050.040.050.050.02
YoY Growth--4.63%24.57%9.55%158.72%58.17%16.10%-17.30%4.99%86.03%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.87%2.98%1.73%2.29%0.82%0.80%0.57%0.70%0.28%0.50%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)214.81
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)8.49
(=) Cash Retained (M)206.31
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)42.9626.8516.11
Cash Retained (M)206.31206.31206.31
(-) Cash Required (M)-42.96-26.85-16.11
(=) Excess Retained (M)163.35179.46190.20
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)371.26371.26371.26
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.440.480.51
LTM Dividend per Share0.020.020.02
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.440.480.51
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.460.510.54
WACC / Discount Rate9.47%9.47%9.47%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$12.31$18.17$29.25
Upside / Downside13.24%67.17%169.06%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)214.81228.77243.64259.47276.34294.30303.13
Payout Ratio3.95%21.16%38.37%55.58%72.79%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)8.4948.4193.49144.22201.15264.87280.40

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.47%9.47%9.47%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)43.8144.2344.64
Year 2 PV (M)76.5678.0279.49
Year 3 PV (M)106.88109.94113.07
Year 4 PV (M)134.89140.08145.42
Year 5 PV (M)160.74168.51176.57
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,631.202,758.292,890.24
Equity Value (M)3,154.093,299.073,449.43
Shares Outstanding (M)371.26371.26371.26
Fair Value$8.50$8.89$9.29
Upside / Downside-21.84%-18.25%-14.52%

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