Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Xuelong Group Co.,Ltd (603949.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$58.00 - $68.38$64.06
Multi-Stage$43.78 - $48.20$45.95
Blended Fair Value$55.00
Current Price$21.02
Upside161.68%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS118.37%32.18%0.320.290.290.290.210.010.170.030.710.03
YoY Growth--10.06%0.58%0.00%40.00%3,104.00%-96.25%522.92%-96.11%2,397.45%44.45%
Dividend Yield--1.12%1.87%1.66%1.12%1.32%0.04%1.33%0.21%5.49%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)76.87
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)21.11
(=) Cash Retained (M)55.76
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)15.379.615.77
Cash Retained (M)55.7655.7655.76
(-) Cash Required (M)-15.37-9.61-5.77
(=) Excess Retained (M)40.3946.1550.00
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)216.09216.09216.09
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.190.210.23
LTM Dividend per Share0.100.100.10
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.190.210.23
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.280.310.33
WACC / Discount Rate-2.58%-2.58%-2.58%
Growth Rate1.90%2.90%3.90%
Fair Value$58.00$64.06$68.38
Upside / Downside175.93%204.76%225.31%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)76.8779.1081.3983.7586.1788.6791.33
Payout Ratio27.46%39.97%52.48%64.99%77.49%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)21.1131.6242.7154.4266.7879.8084.48

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate-2.58%-2.58%-2.58%
Growth Rate1.90%2.90%3.90%
Year 1 PV (M)32.1432.4632.77
Year 2 PV (M)44.1345.0145.88
Year 3 PV (M)57.1658.8660.60
Year 4 PV (M)71.3074.1477.06
Year 5 PV (M)86.6190.9495.45
PV of Terminal Value (M)9,168.419,627.2210,104.22
Equity Value (M)9,459.769,928.6310,415.98
Shares Outstanding (M)216.09216.09216.09
Fair Value$43.78$45.95$48.20
Upside / Downside108.27%118.59%129.32%

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