Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Suzhou Xingye Materials Technology Co.,Ltd. (603928.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Chemicals - SpecialtySector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.23 - $3.27$2.73
Multi-Stage$5.80 - $6.40$6.10
Blended Fair Value$4.41
Current Price$15.66
Upside-71.83%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-3.85%-1.92%0.150.010.780.120.150.180.180.150.120.19
YoY Growth--1,637.46%-98.92%573.49%-25.00%-13.38%-2.68%21.85%29.80%-39.02%6.77%
Dividend Yield--1.32%0.10%8.69%1.34%1.77%2.21%1.49%1.33%0.59%1.69%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)77.99
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)20.97
(=) Cash Retained (M)57.03
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)15.609.755.85
Cash Retained (M)57.0357.0357.03
(-) Cash Required (M)-15.60-9.75-5.85
(=) Excess Retained (M)41.4347.2851.18
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)262.20262.20262.20
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.160.180.20
LTM Dividend per Share0.080.080.08
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.160.180.20
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.240.260.28
WACC / Discount Rate6.34%6.34%6.34%
Growth Rate-3.92%-2.92%-1.92%
Fair Value$2.23$2.73$3.27
Upside / Downside-85.77%-82.58%-79.14%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)77.9975.7173.5071.3569.2767.2569.26
Payout Ratio26.88%39.51%52.13%64.75%77.38%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)20.9729.9138.3246.2053.6060.5264.07

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.34%6.34%6.34%
Growth Rate-3.92%-2.92%-1.92%
Year 1 PV (M)27.8428.1328.42
Year 2 PV (M)33.1933.8834.59
Year 3 PV (M)37.2538.4239.62
Year 4 PV (M)40.2241.9243.67
Year 5 PV (M)42.2644.5146.85
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,340.181,411.401,485.60
Equity Value (M)1,520.941,598.261,678.75
Shares Outstanding (M)262.20262.20262.20
Fair Value$5.80$6.10$6.40
Upside / Downside-62.96%-61.07%-59.11%

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