Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Olympic Circuit Technology Co., Ltd (603920.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Hardware, Equipment & PartsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$82.90 - $229.54$215.11
Multi-Stage$32.51 - $35.55$34.00
Blended Fair Value$124.56
Current Price$45.59
Upside173.21%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS12.98%24.88%0.490.470.470.350.290.260.270.010.190.19
YoY Growth--4.05%-0.24%32.33%20.04%11.66%-0.64%3,444.33%-96.10%3.59%252.73%
Dividend Yield--1.63%2.51%2.55%2.09%2.29%1.88%2.41%0.06%1.15%1.11%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)816.99
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)436.24
(=) Cash Retained (M)380.76
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)163.40102.1261.27
Cash Retained (M)380.76380.76380.76
(-) Cash Required (M)-163.40-102.12-61.27
(=) Excess Retained (M)217.36278.63319.48
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)707.85707.85707.85
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.310.390.45
LTM Dividend per Share0.620.620.62
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.310.390.45
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.921.011.07
WACC / Discount Rate6.68%6.68%6.68%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$82.90$215.11$229.54
Upside / Downside81.84%371.84%403.49%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)816.99870.10926.65986.891,051.041,119.351,152.93
Payout Ratio53.40%60.72%68.04%75.36%82.68%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)436.24528.29630.47743.70868.991,007.421,066.46

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.68%6.68%6.68%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)490.58495.23499.88
Year 2 PV (M)543.68554.04564.49
Year 3 PV (M)595.55612.64630.06
Year 4 PV (M)646.21671.06696.62
Year 5 PV (M)695.68729.28764.17
PV of Terminal Value (M)20,039.0221,006.9122,011.85
Equity Value (M)23,010.7224,069.1625,167.07
Shares Outstanding (M)707.85707.85707.85
Fair Value$32.51$34.00$35.55
Upside / Downside-28.70%-25.42%-22.01%

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