Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Jason Furniture (Hangzhou) Co.,Ltd. (603816.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Furnishings, Fixtures & AppliancesSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$331.03 - $390.01$365.49
Multi-Stage$106.67 - $117.01$111.74
Blended Fair Value$238.62
Current Price$30.17
Upside690.91%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS17.35%13.70%1.371.241.090.660.900.620.540.360.200.60
YoY Growth--10.66%14.02%63.45%-26.28%46.38%14.06%50.13%82.37%-67.00%57.50%
Dividend Yield--5.34%3.31%2.68%1.41%1.45%2.28%1.58%1.03%0.72%3.06%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,596.43
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)79.42
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,517.01
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)319.29199.55119.73
Cash Retained (M)1,517.011,517.011,517.01
(-) Cash Required (M)-319.29-199.55-119.73
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,197.731,317.461,397.28
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)814.07814.07814.07
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.471.621.72
LTM Dividend per Share0.100.100.10
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.471.621.72
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.571.721.81
WACC / Discount Rate4.90%4.90%4.90%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$331.03$365.49$390.01
Upside / Downside997.20%1,111.44%1,192.69%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,596.431,700.201,810.711,928.412,053.752,187.252,252.87
Payout Ratio4.97%21.98%38.98%55.99%72.99%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)79.42373.70705.901,079.711,499.141,968.522,083.90

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate4.90%4.90%4.90%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)352.89356.24359.58
Year 2 PV (M)629.48641.47653.57
Year 3 PV (M)909.21935.31961.91
Year 4 PV (M)1,192.111,237.961,285.11
Year 5 PV (M)1,478.211,549.611,623.74
PV of Terminal Value (M)82,272.4586,246.2490,372.12
Equity Value (M)86,834.3690,966.8395,256.03
Shares Outstanding (M)814.07814.07814.07
Fair Value$106.67$111.74$117.01
Upside / Downside253.55%270.38%287.84%

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