Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Anhui Gourgen Traffic Construction Co.,Ltd. (603815.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Engineering & ConstructionSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$23.97 - $51.97$48.71
Multi-Stage$7.89 - $8.63$8.25
Blended Fair Value$28.48
Current Price$13.69
Upside108.04%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS10.27%0.00%0.200.270.210.210.160.120.030.030.050.06
YoY Growth---25.94%27.59%0.32%27.05%35.38%375.17%-22.11%-27.98%-26.70%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.65%3.53%2.75%2.20%1.37%0.57%0.35%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)166.81
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)76.48
(=) Cash Retained (M)90.33
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)33.3620.8512.51
Cash Retained (M)90.3390.3390.33
(-) Cash Required (M)-33.36-20.85-12.51
(=) Excess Retained (M)56.9769.4877.82
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)638.29638.29638.29
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.090.110.12
LTM Dividend per Share0.120.120.12
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.090.110.12
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.210.230.24
WACC / Discount Rate6.42%6.42%6.42%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$23.97$48.71$51.97
Upside / Downside75.09%255.79%279.65%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)166.81177.65189.20201.50214.60228.55235.40
Payout Ratio45.85%54.68%63.51%72.34%81.17%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)76.4897.14120.16145.76174.19205.69217.75

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.42%6.42%6.42%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)90.4291.2892.13
Year 2 PV (M)104.11106.10108.10
Year 3 PV (M)117.57120.94124.38
Year 4 PV (M)130.78135.81140.98
Year 5 PV (M)143.75150.69157.90
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,449.354,664.254,887.38
Equity Value (M)5,035.975,269.075,510.88
Shares Outstanding (M)638.29638.29638.29
Fair Value$7.89$8.25$8.63
Upside / Downside-42.37%-39.70%-36.93%

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