Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Nanjing King-Friend Biochemical Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd (603707.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$32.37 - $78.76$73.81
Multi-Stage$11.44 - $12.53$11.98
Blended Fair Value$42.89
Current Price$10.36
Upside314.04%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS16.20%18.15%0.130.150.140.120.160.060.040.000.020.02
YoY Growth---14.20%9.63%18.20%-26.59%159.54%37.68%2,334.10%-92.09%20.51%-21.73%
Dividend Yield--0.92%1.35%0.85%0.48%0.67%0.27%0.34%0.02%0.83%0.69%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)649.83
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)200.22
(=) Cash Retained (M)449.61
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)129.9781.2348.74
Cash Retained (M)449.61449.61449.61
(-) Cash Required (M)-129.97-81.23-48.74
(=) Excess Retained (M)319.65368.38400.87
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,640.801,640.801,640.80
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.190.220.24
LTM Dividend per Share0.120.120.12
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.190.220.24
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.320.350.37
WACC / Discount Rate6.53%6.53%6.53%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$32.37$73.81$78.76
Upside / Downside212.45%612.48%660.26%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)649.83692.07737.05784.96835.98890.32917.03
Payout Ratio30.81%42.65%54.49%66.32%78.16%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)200.22295.16401.59520.62653.42801.29848.25

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.53%6.53%6.53%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)274.46277.06279.66
Year 2 PV (M)347.24353.85360.53
Year 3 PV (M)418.58430.60442.84
Year 4 PV (M)488.51507.30526.62
Year 5 PV (M)557.04583.95611.88
PV of Terminal Value (M)16,692.7017,498.9718,336.09
Equity Value (M)18,778.5319,651.7220,557.62
Shares Outstanding (M)1,640.801,640.801,640.80
Fair Value$11.44$11.98$12.53
Upside / Downside10.47%15.61%20.94%

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