Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Mode

Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

KTK Group Co., Ltd. (603680.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: RailroadsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$10.26 - $19.93$14.10
Multi-Stage$15.92 - $17.49$16.69
Blended Fair Value$15.40
Current Price$12.40
Upside24.18%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-8.77%-2.64%0.160.140.210.240.360.260.241.220.030.99
YoY Growth--15.08%-32.61%-10.16%-35.25%40.10%6.35%-80.03%4,220.98%-97.15%362.61%
Dividend Yield--1.96%1.74%2.35%2.94%2.30%2.85%1.84%5.69%0.11%3.84%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)504.60
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)144.39
(=) Cash Retained (M)360.21
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)100.9263.0737.84
Cash Retained (M)360.21360.21360.21
(-) Cash Required (M)-100.92-63.07-37.84
(=) Excess Retained (M)259.29297.14322.36
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)783.86783.86783.86
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.330.380.41
LTM Dividend per Share0.180.180.18
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.330.380.41
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.510.560.60
WACC / Discount Rate6.40%6.40%6.40%
Growth Rate1.31%2.31%3.31%
Fair Value$10.26$14.10$19.93
Upside / Downside-17.28%13.73%60.73%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)504.60516.25528.18540.38552.86565.64582.60
Payout Ratio28.61%40.89%53.17%65.45%77.72%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)144.39211.10280.83353.66429.70509.07538.91

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.40%6.40%6.40%
Growth Rate1.31%2.31%3.31%
Year 1 PV (M)196.47198.41200.35
Year 2 PV (M)243.25248.07252.95
Year 3 PV (M)285.10293.63302.32
Year 4 PV (M)322.40335.32348.62
Year 5 PV (M)355.48373.37391.98
PV of Terminal Value (M)11,078.9211,636.6012,216.52
Equity Value (M)12,481.6113,085.4013,712.73
Shares Outstanding (M)783.86783.86783.86
Fair Value$15.92$16.69$17.49
Upside / Downside28.41%34.63%41.08%

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