Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Zhejiang XCC Group Co.,Ltd (603667.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Manufacturing - Tools & AccessoriesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$10.77 - $48.75$24.82
Multi-Stage$5.84 - $6.38$6.10
Blended Fair Value$15.46
Current Price$46.15
Upside-66.49%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS17.31%18.32%0.270.160.160.130.130.120.140.080.020.07
YoY Growth--65.49%-0.12%26.95%-0.36%6.25%-10.12%66.67%244.83%-67.31%43.33%
Dividend Yield--0.70%0.86%1.29%1.05%1.67%1.52%1.34%0.48%0.10%0.74%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)91.62
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)76.57
(=) Cash Retained (M)15.05
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)18.3211.456.87
Cash Retained (M)15.0515.0515.05
(-) Cash Required (M)-18.32-11.45-6.87
(=) Excess Retained (M)-3.273.608.18
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)373.78373.78373.78
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.010.010.02
LTM Dividend per Share0.200.200.20
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.010.010.02
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.200.210.23
WACC / Discount Rate7.42%7.42%7.42%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$10.77$24.82$48.75
Upside / Downside-76.65%-46.21%5.63%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)91.6297.58103.92110.67117.87125.53129.29
Payout Ratio83.57%84.86%86.14%87.43%88.71%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)76.5782.8089.5296.76104.56112.97119.60

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.42%7.42%7.42%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)76.3677.0877.80
Year 2 PV (M)76.1377.5879.04
Year 3 PV (M)75.8878.0680.28
Year 4 PV (M)75.6278.5381.52
Year 5 PV (M)75.3578.9982.76
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,804.531,891.691,982.19
Equity Value (M)2,183.872,281.932,383.60
Shares Outstanding (M)373.78373.78373.78
Fair Value$5.84$6.10$6.38
Upside / Downside-87.34%-86.77%-86.18%

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