Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Hefei Taihe Optoelectronic Technology Co., Ltd. (603656.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.12 - $3.57$2.76
Multi-Stage$2.19 - $2.39$2.29
Blended Fair Value$2.52
Current Price$22.88
Upside-88.97%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-11.46%-2.43%0.050.100.090.090.080.090.150.090.060.06
YoY Growth---50.99%20.53%-1.33%2.69%-9.09%-38.40%75.00%33.33%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.27%0.74%0.66%0.73%0.66%0.68%0.83%0.41%0.19%0.40%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)30.58
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)9.30
(=) Cash Retained (M)21.27
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)6.123.822.29
Cash Retained (M)21.2721.2721.27
(-) Cash Required (M)-6.12-3.82-2.29
(=) Excess Retained (M)15.1617.4518.98
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)177.12177.12177.12
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.090.100.11
LTM Dividend per Share0.050.050.05
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.090.100.11
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.140.150.16
WACC / Discount Rate9.96%9.96%9.96%
Growth Rate3.25%4.25%5.25%
Fair Value$2.12$2.76$3.57
Upside / Downside-90.71%-87.95%-84.41%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)30.5831.8733.2334.6436.1137.6438.77
Payout Ratio30.43%42.35%54.26%66.17%78.09%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)9.3013.5018.0322.9228.2033.8835.87

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.96%9.96%9.96%
Growth Rate3.25%4.25%5.25%
Year 1 PV (M)12.1612.2812.39
Year 2 PV (M)14.6314.9115.20
Year 3 PV (M)16.7517.2417.74
Year 4 PV (M)18.5619.2920.04
Year 5 PV (M)20.0921.0822.11
PV of Terminal Value (M)305.60320.69336.37
Equity Value (M)387.78405.49423.86
Shares Outstanding (M)177.12177.12177.12
Fair Value$2.19$2.29$2.39
Upside / Downside-90.43%-89.99%-89.54%

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