Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Yantai Eddie Precision Machinery Co., Ltd. (603638.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$75.72 - $89.21$83.61
Multi-Stage$53.57 - $58.79$56.13
Blended Fair Value$69.87
Current Price$18.45
Upside278.70%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS23.17%43.85%0.230.130.140.150.100.080.060.060.000.04
YoY Growth--82.41%-8.12%-8.47%51.36%22.09%33.61%-6.09%1,772.28%-91.76%591.23%
Dividend Yield--1.02%0.77%0.76%0.63%0.23%0.47%0.59%0.82%0.05%1.96%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)379.57
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)140.21
(=) Cash Retained (M)239.36
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)75.9147.4528.47
Cash Retained (M)239.36239.36239.36
(-) Cash Required (M)-75.91-47.45-28.47
(=) Excess Retained (M)163.44191.91210.89
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)846.15846.15846.15
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.190.230.25
LTM Dividend per Share0.170.170.17
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.190.230.25
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.360.390.41
WACC / Discount Rate1.51%1.51%1.51%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$75.72$83.61$89.21
Upside / Downside310.41%353.15%383.54%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)379.57404.25430.52458.50488.31520.05535.65
Payout Ratio36.94%47.55%58.16%68.78%79.39%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)140.21192.23250.41315.34387.66468.04495.48

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate1.51%1.51%1.51%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)187.58189.36191.14
Year 2 PV (M)238.46243.00247.59
Year 3 PV (M)293.04301.45310.03
Year 4 PV (M)351.55365.07378.97
Year 5 PV (M)414.19434.20454.97
PV of Terminal Value (M)43,846.8845,964.7048,163.57
Equity Value (M)45,331.7047,497.7849,746.26
Shares Outstanding (M)846.15846.15846.15
Fair Value$53.57$56.13$58.79
Upside / Downside190.37%204.25%218.65%

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