Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Ningbo Orient Wires & Cables Co.,Ltd. (603606.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Electrical Equipment & PartsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$243.73 - $287.15$269.11
Multi-Stage$167.08 - $183.35$175.06
Blended Fair Value$222.09
Current Price$70.64
Upside214.39%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS32.04%16.69%0.480.300.400.240.140.120.090.070.040.06
YoY Growth--59.65%-25.25%68.64%65.95%20.19%29.01%33.47%86.99%-38.15%-41.45%
Dividend Yield--0.99%0.65%0.82%0.46%0.61%0.98%1.00%1.20%0.40%0.74%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)990.01
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)322.85
(=) Cash Retained (M)667.17
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)198.00123.7574.25
Cash Retained (M)667.17667.17667.17
(-) Cash Required (M)-198.00-123.75-74.25
(=) Excess Retained (M)469.16543.42592.92
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)685.65685.65685.65
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.680.790.86
LTM Dividend per Share0.470.470.47
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.680.790.86
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.161.261.34
WACC / Discount Rate2.15%2.15%2.15%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$243.73$269.11$287.15
Upside / Downside245.03%280.95%306.50%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)990.011,054.361,122.901,195.891,273.621,356.401,397.09
Payout Ratio32.61%44.09%55.57%67.04%78.52%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)322.85464.85623.95801.771,000.071,220.761,292.31

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate2.15%2.15%2.15%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)450.81455.08459.35
Year 2 PV (M)586.83598.00609.29
Year 3 PV (M)731.29752.28773.67
Year 4 PV (M)884.60918.62953.61
Year 5 PV (M)1,047.201,097.781,150.29
PV of Terminal Value (M)110,857.27116,211.71121,771.09
Equity Value (M)114,557.99120,033.48125,717.30
Shares Outstanding (M)685.65685.65685.65
Fair Value$167.08$175.06$183.35
Upside / Downside136.52%147.83%159.56%

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