Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

Suli Co., Ltd. (603585.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ChemicalsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$15.00 - $43.04$23.49
Multi-Stage$16.83 - $18.46$17.63
Blended Fair Value$20.56
Current Price$18.28
Upside12.46%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-12.70%22.35%0.280.580.340.280.560.560.390.310.000.02
YoY Growth---50.81%69.78%21.64%-50.00%-0.20%44.29%25.00%0.00%-100.00%-58.25%
Dividend Yield--1.97%4.75%1.88%1.61%3.61%2.84%1.48%1.28%0.00%0.07%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)119.78
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)42.77
(=) Cash Retained (M)77.02
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)23.9614.978.98
Cash Retained (M)77.0277.0277.02
(-) Cash Required (M)-23.96-14.97-8.98
(=) Excess Retained (M)53.0662.0468.03
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)193.75193.75193.75
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.270.320.35
LTM Dividend per Share0.220.220.22
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.270.320.35
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.490.540.57
WACC / Discount Rate6.35%6.35%6.35%
Growth Rate2.96%3.96%4.96%
Fair Value$15.00$23.49$43.04
Upside / Downside-17.93%28.48%135.47%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)119.78124.52129.46134.58139.91145.45149.81
Payout Ratio35.70%46.56%57.42%68.28%79.14%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)42.7757.9874.3491.89110.73130.91138.58

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.35%6.35%6.35%
Growth Rate2.96%3.96%4.96%
Year 1 PV (M)53.9954.5255.04
Year 2 PV (M)64.4665.7266.99
Year 3 PV (M)74.2076.3978.61
Year 4 PV (M)83.2686.5489.92
Year 5 PV (M)91.6696.20100.92
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,892.893,036.143,185.00
Equity Value (M)3,260.473,415.503,576.48
Shares Outstanding (M)193.75193.75193.75
Fair Value$16.83$17.63$18.46
Upside / Downside-7.94%-3.56%0.98%

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