Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Ningbo Menovo Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. (603538.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$9.66 - $23.87$14.44
Multi-Stage$20.44 - $22.50$21.45
Blended Fair Value$17.95
Current Price$21.75
Upside-17.49%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-14.86%8.51%0.100.270.230.060.190.230.180.020.010.01
YoY Growth---61.66%18.42%261.65%-66.67%-18.27%29.98%795.57%64.72%44.49%-81.74%
Dividend Yield--0.73%1.90%0.90%0.12%0.87%1.10%1.24%0.15%0.10%0.07%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)99.48
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)33.97
(=) Cash Retained (M)65.51
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)19.9012.447.46
Cash Retained (M)65.5165.5165.51
(-) Cash Required (M)-19.90-12.44-7.46
(=) Excess Retained (M)45.6253.0858.05
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)217.81217.81217.81
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.210.240.27
LTM Dividend per Share0.160.160.16
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.210.240.27
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.370.400.42
WACC / Discount Rate4.89%4.89%4.89%
Growth Rate1.07%2.07%3.07%
Fair Value$9.66$14.44$23.87
Upside / Downside-55.60%-33.60%9.74%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)99.48101.54103.64105.79107.98110.21113.52
Payout Ratio34.15%45.32%56.49%67.66%78.83%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)33.9746.0158.5571.5785.1299.19105.01

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate4.89%4.89%4.89%
Growth Rate1.07%2.07%3.07%
Year 1 PV (M)43.4443.8744.30
Year 2 PV (M)52.1753.2154.26
Year 3 PV (M)60.2162.0263.86
Year 4 PV (M)67.5970.3173.11
Year 5 PV (M)74.3678.1182.01
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,154.824,364.474,582.50
Equity Value (M)4,452.594,671.984,900.03
Shares Outstanding (M)217.81217.81217.81
Fair Value$20.44$21.45$22.50
Upside / Downside-6.01%-1.38%3.43%

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