Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Ecovacs Robotics Co., Ltd. (603486.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Furnishings, Fixtures & AppliancesSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$473.53 - $557.90$522.83
Multi-Stage$188.61 - $206.90$197.58
Blended Fair Value$360.21
Current Price$107.50
Upside235.08%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS4.37%7.60%0.370.951.120.500.010.300.000.000.160.43
YoY Growth---60.82%-15.47%122.84%6,427.21%-97.43%7,693.83%3,057.84%-99.92%-63.32%141.79%
Dividend Yield--0.60%2.60%1.36%0.46%0.01%1.56%0.01%0.00%0.77%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,609.01
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)297.11
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,311.90
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)321.80201.13120.68
Cash Retained (M)1,311.901,311.901,311.90
(-) Cash Required (M)-321.80-201.13-120.68
(=) Excess Retained (M)990.101,110.771,191.22
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)573.56573.56573.56
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.731.942.08
LTM Dividend per Share0.520.520.52
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.731.942.08
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.242.452.59
WACC / Discount Rate4.56%4.56%4.56%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$473.53$522.83$557.90
Upside / Downside340.49%386.36%418.98%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,609.011,713.591,824.981,943.602,069.932,204.482,270.61
Payout Ratio18.47%32.77%47.08%61.39%75.69%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)297.11561.58859.181,193.101,566.801,984.032,100.32

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate4.56%4.56%4.56%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)532.07537.11542.16
Year 2 PV (M)771.25785.94800.77
Year 3 PV (M)1,014.721,043.841,073.53
Year 4 PV (M)1,262.511,311.071,361.01
Year 5 PV (M)1,514.701,587.861,663.83
PV of Terminal Value (M)103,082.32108,061.24113,230.71
Equity Value (M)108,177.58113,327.07118,672.00
Shares Outstanding (M)573.56573.56573.56
Fair Value$188.61$197.58$206.90
Upside / Downside75.45%83.80%92.47%

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