Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Jiangsu Hengxing New Material (603276.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ChemicalsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$30.44 - $35.91$33.63
Multi-Stage$57.65 - $63.73$60.63
Blended Fair Value$47.13
Current Price$17.44
Upside170.24%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020201920182017
DPS-4.77%0.00%0.150.010.020.030.080.190.030.020.000.00
YoY Growth--904.01%-30.67%-32.49%-59.03%-59.33%609.24%12.32%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.89%0.10%0.09%0.13%0.33%0.81%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)40.80
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)25.96
(=) Cash Retained (M)14.84
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)8.165.103.06
Cash Retained (M)14.8414.8414.84
(-) Cash Required (M)-8.16-5.10-3.06
(=) Excess Retained (M)6.689.7411.78
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)210.16210.16210.16
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.030.050.06
LTM Dividend per Share0.120.120.12
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.030.050.06
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.160.170.18
WACC / Discount Rate-21.49%-21.49%-21.49%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$30.44$33.63$35.91
Upside / Downside74.52%92.83%105.91%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)40.8040.3939.9839.5839.1938.8039.96
Payout Ratio63.62%68.90%74.17%79.45%84.72%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)25.9627.8329.6631.4533.2034.9236.96

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate-21.49%-21.49%-21.49%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)35.0835.4435.80
Year 2 PV (M)47.1448.1149.09
Year 3 PV (M)63.0364.9866.97
Year 4 PV (M)83.9087.3790.96
Year 5 PV (M)111.24117.03123.06
PV of Terminal Value (M)11,775.8812,389.0813,027.56
Equity Value (M)12,116.2712,742.0213,393.43
Shares Outstanding (M)210.16210.16210.16
Fair Value$57.65$60.63$63.73
Upside / Downside230.57%247.64%265.42%

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