Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

China Nerin Engineering Co Ltd (603257.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Engineering & ConstructionSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$11.87 - $18.37$14.89
Multi-Stage$27.53 - $30.27$28.87
Blended Fair Value$21.88
Current Price$63.56
Upside-65.57%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS0.00%0.00%0.560.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.56%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)134.85
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)89.42
(=) Cash Retained (M)45.43
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)26.9716.8610.11
Cash Retained (M)45.4345.4345.43
(-) Cash Required (M)-26.97-16.86-10.11
(=) Excess Retained (M)18.4628.5735.32
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)105.74105.74105.74
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.170.270.33
LTM Dividend per Share0.850.850.85
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.170.270.33
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.021.121.18
WACC / Discount Rate6.42%6.42%6.42%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$11.87$14.89$18.37
Upside / Downside-81.32%-76.58%-71.09%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)134.85133.50132.16130.84129.53128.24132.08
Payout Ratio66.31%71.05%75.79%80.52%85.26%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)89.4294.85100.16105.36110.44115.41122.18

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.42%6.42%6.42%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)88.2289.1390.03
Year 2 PV (M)86.6688.4490.24
Year 3 PV (M)84.8087.4290.09
Year 4 PV (M)82.6886.1189.64
Year 5 PV (M)80.3784.5688.91
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,487.772,617.322,752.20
Equity Value (M)2,910.513,052.963,201.11
Shares Outstanding (M)105.74105.74105.74
Fair Value$27.53$28.87$30.27
Upside / Downside-56.69%-54.57%-52.37%

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