DDM Analysis: 603083.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$48.80 - $206.39	$121.67
Multi-Stage	$24.43 - $26.73	$25.56
Blended Fair Value	$73.62
Current Price	$127.80
Upside	-42.40%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	15.03%	24.17%	0.32	0.21	0.18	0.11	0.15	0.16	0.10	0.01	0.00	0.01
YoY Growth	-	-	53.92%	17.11%	64.81%	-26.75%	-7.47%	62.60%	600.83%	434.09%	-81.46%	-61.65%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.87%	0.51%	0.48%	0.82%	1.30%	0.69%	0.50%	0.07%	0.03%	0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	274.24
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	86.93
(=) Cash Retained (M)	187.31

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	54.85	34.28	20.57
Cash Retained (M)	187.31	187.31	187.31
(-) Cash Required (M)	-54.85	-34.28	-20.57
(=) Excess Retained (M)	132.46	153.03	166.74
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	264.25	264.25	264.25
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.50	0.58	0.63
LTM Dividend per Share	0.33	0.33	0.33
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.50	0.58	0.63
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.83	0.91	0.96
WACC / Discount Rate	7.29%	7.29%	7.29%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$48.80	$121.67	$206.39
Upside / Downside	-61.81%	-4.79%	61.50%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	274.24	292.06	311.05	331.26	352.80	375.73	387.00
Payout Ratio	31.70%	43.36%	55.02%	66.68%	78.34%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	86.93	126.63	171.13	220.88	276.38	338.15	357.97

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	7.29%	7.29%	7.29%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	116.91	118.02	119.13
Year 2 PV (M)	145.87	148.65	151.46
Year 3 PV (M)	173.83	178.82	183.91
Year 4 PV (M)	200.82	208.54	216.48
Year 5 PV (M)	226.85	237.81	249.18
PV of Terminal Value (M)	5,591.47	5,861.54	6,141.95
Equity Value (M)	6,455.76	6,753.38	7,062.11
Shares Outstanding (M)	264.25	264.25	264.25
Fair Value	$24.43	$25.56	$26.73
Upside / Downside	-80.88%	-80.00%	-79.09%

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CIG ShangHai Co., Ltd. (603083.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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