Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Dongguan Huali Industries Co.,Ltd (603038.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Furnishings, Fixtures & AppliancesSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3.26 - $8.96$5.04
Multi-Stage$8.20 - $9.02$8.60
Blended Fair Value$6.82
Current Price$17.43
Upside-60.88%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-1.34%48.65%0.120.110.110.130.140.130.080.120.110.01
YoY Growth--3.97%8.74%-16.24%-10.09%9.82%62.46%-37.20%17.17%1,784.72%150.08%
Dividend Yield--0.83%1.14%1.72%1.71%1.42%1.60%0.95%1.17%0.61%0.06%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)35.02
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)30.05
(=) Cash Retained (M)4.96
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)7.004.382.63
Cash Retained (M)4.964.964.96
(-) Cash Required (M)-7.00-4.38-2.63
(=) Excess Retained (M)-2.040.592.34
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)248.08248.08248.08
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.010.000.01
LTM Dividend per Share0.120.120.12
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.010.000.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.110.120.13
WACC / Discount Rate4.49%4.49%4.49%
Growth Rate0.98%1.98%2.98%
Fair Value$3.26$5.04$8.96
Upside / Downside-81.31%-71.11%-48.61%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)35.0235.7136.4237.1437.8838.6339.79
Payout Ratio85.83%86.66%87.50%88.33%89.17%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)30.0530.9531.8732.8133.7834.7736.81

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate4.49%4.49%4.49%
Growth Rate0.98%1.98%2.98%
Year 1 PV (M)29.3329.6229.91
Year 2 PV (M)28.6229.1929.77
Year 3 PV (M)27.9328.7629.62
Year 4 PV (M)27.2428.3429.47
Year 5 PV (M)26.5827.9229.32
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,894.261,989.932,089.42
Equity Value (M)2,033.962,133.762,237.50
Shares Outstanding (M)248.08248.08248.08
Fair Value$8.20$8.60$9.02
Upside / Downside-52.96%-50.65%-48.25%

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