Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Zhejiang Dragon Technology Co., Ltd. (603004.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ChemicalsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$9.85 - $17.32$13.03
Multi-Stage$17.84 - $19.62$18.71
Blended Fair Value$15.87
Current Price$24.04
Upside-33.99%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS53.50%0.00%0.220.000.020.020.010.030.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--5,930.37%-75.75%-4.23%12.46%-45.90%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.06%0.02%0.09%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)177.89
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)56.45
(=) Cash Retained (M)121.44
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)35.5822.2413.34
Cash Retained (M)121.44121.44121.44
(-) Cash Required (M)-35.58-22.24-13.34
(=) Excess Retained (M)85.8699.21108.10
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)238.36238.36238.36
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.360.420.45
LTM Dividend per Share0.240.240.24
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.360.420.45
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.600.650.69
WACC / Discount Rate6.35%6.35%6.35%
Growth Rate0.28%1.28%2.28%
Fair Value$9.85$13.03$17.32
Upside / Downside-59.02%-45.82%-27.97%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)177.89180.17182.47184.80187.16189.55195.23
Payout Ratio31.73%43.39%55.04%66.69%78.35%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)56.4578.17100.43123.25146.63170.59180.59

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.35%6.35%6.35%
Growth Rate0.28%1.28%2.28%
Year 1 PV (M)72.7773.5074.22
Year 2 PV (M)87.0488.7990.55
Year 3 PV (M)99.44102.45105.51
Year 4 PV (M)110.14114.60119.20
Year 5 PV (M)119.30125.36131.68
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,764.423,955.914,155.10
Equity Value (M)4,253.124,460.614,676.26
Shares Outstanding (M)238.36238.36238.36
Fair Value$17.84$18.71$19.62
Upside / Downside-25.78%-22.16%-18.39%

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