Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Yangtze Optical Fibre And Cable Joint Stock Limited Company (601869.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Communication EquipmentSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$67.39 - $150.54$141.08
Multi-Stage$23.30 - $25.46$24.36
Blended Fair Value$82.72
Current Price$100.84
Upside-17.97%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS15.51%-3.80%0.510.760.280.220.320.250.570.310.160.14
YoY Growth---32.43%170.70%30.09%-32.08%27.20%-56.31%86.29%96.14%11.81%-81.50%
Dividend Yield--1.52%2.55%0.68%0.81%1.36%0.79%1.22%0.80%0.41%0.36%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)572.62
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)508.59
(=) Cash Retained (M)64.03
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)114.5271.5842.95
Cash Retained (M)64.0364.0364.03
(-) Cash Required (M)-114.52-71.58-42.95
(=) Excess Retained (M)-50.49-7.5521.08
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)756.47756.47756.47
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.07-0.010.03
LTM Dividend per Share0.670.670.67
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.07-0.010.03
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.610.660.70
WACC / Discount Rate6.45%6.45%6.45%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$67.39$141.08$150.54
Upside / Downside-33.17%39.90%49.29%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)572.62609.84649.48691.70736.66784.54808.07
Payout Ratio88.82%89.05%89.29%89.53%89.76%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)508.59543.09579.93619.26661.25706.08747.47

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.45%6.45%6.45%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)505.40510.19514.98
Year 2 PV (M)502.23511.80521.45
Year 3 PV (M)499.08513.40528.00
Year 4 PV (M)495.94515.01534.63
Year 5 PV (M)492.82516.62541.33
PV of Terminal Value (M)15,130.6615,861.4816,620.26
Equity Value (M)17,626.1218,428.5019,260.66
Shares Outstanding (M)756.47756.47756.47
Fair Value$23.30$24.36$25.46
Upside / Downside-76.89%-75.84%-74.75%

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