Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway Co.,Ltd. (601816.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: RailroadsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$41.78 - $49.29$46.16
Multi-Stage$33.03 - $36.52$34.74
Blended Fair Value$40.45
Current Price$5.13
Upside688.49%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS-14.88%0.00%0.150.070.110.110.130.350.160.120.060.00
YoY Growth--130.65%-41.06%7.49%-16.52%-63.37%122.19%30.09%110.26%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.77%1.32%2.17%2.21%2.16%5.57%2.29%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)13,055.28
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,077.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)11,978.28
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2,611.061,631.91979.15
Cash Retained (M)11,978.2811,978.2811,978.28
(-) Cash Required (M)-2,611.06-1,631.91-979.15
(=) Excess Retained (M)9,367.2310,346.3710,999.14
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)49,000.9149,000.9149,000.91
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.190.210.22
LTM Dividend per Share0.020.020.02
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.190.210.22
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.210.230.25
WACC / Discount Rate-6.51%-6.51%-6.51%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$41.78$46.16$49.29
Upside / Downside714.35%799.78%860.81%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)13,055.2812,924.7312,795.4812,667.5312,540.8512,415.4412,787.91
Payout Ratio8.25%24.60%40.95%57.30%73.65%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,077.003,179.435,239.717,258.479,236.3211,173.9011,828.81

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate-6.51%-6.51%-6.51%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)3,366.503,400.863,435.21
Year 2 PV (M)5,874.445,994.946,116.66
Year 3 PV (M)8,616.558,883.029,154.93
Year 4 PV (M)11,609.5912,090.7512,586.72
Year 5 PV (M)14,871.4015,645.7916,452.10
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,574,302.711,656,280.301,741,637.89
Equity Value (M)1,618,641.181,702,295.651,789,383.50
Shares Outstanding (M)49,000.9149,000.9149,000.91
Fair Value$33.03$34.74$36.52
Upside / Downside543.92%577.19%611.84%

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