Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.,Ltd. (601689.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$260.62 - $307.05$287.75
Multi-Stage$210.95 - $231.51$221.04
Blended Fair Value$254.40
Current Price$80.99
Upside214.11%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS19.17%7.66%0.450.370.220.120.120.190.010.010.230.07
YoY Growth--21.61%63.49%91.59%-5.93%-32.94%1,161.02%61.04%-95.96%223.75%-67.22%
Dividend Yield--0.77%0.84%0.51%0.30%0.54%1.65%0.15%0.09%1.46%0.55%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,733.10
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,020.89
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,712.20
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)546.62341.64204.98
Cash Retained (M)1,712.201,712.201,712.20
(-) Cash Required (M)-546.62-341.64-204.98
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,165.581,370.571,507.22
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,770.191,770.191,770.19
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.660.770.85
LTM Dividend per Share0.580.580.58
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.660.770.85
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.241.351.43
WACC / Discount Rate-1.21%-1.21%-1.21%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$260.62$287.75$307.05
Upside / Downside221.79%255.30%279.13%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,733.102,910.753,099.943,301.443,516.033,744.583,856.91
Payout Ratio37.35%47.88%58.41%68.94%79.47%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,020.891,393.731,810.732,276.052,794.213,370.123,567.65

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate-1.21%-1.21%-1.21%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,397.551,410.801,424.04
Year 2 PV (M)1,820.661,855.341,890.34
Year 3 PV (M)2,294.792,360.672,427.79
Year 4 PV (M)2,824.932,933.573,045.31
Year 5 PV (M)3,416.503,581.513,752.85
PV of Terminal Value (M)361,674.07379,143.07397,280.64
Equity Value (M)373,428.50391,284.96409,820.98
Shares Outstanding (M)1,770.191,770.191,770.19
Fair Value$210.95$221.04$231.51
Upside / Downside160.47%172.92%185.85%

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