Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Aluminum Corporation of China Limited (601600.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: AluminumSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$21.83 - $70.15$35.27
Multi-Stage$22.30 - $24.47$23.36
Blended Fair Value$29.32
Current Price$8.24
Upside255.81%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS67.98%-3.54%0.280.200.010.020.020.020.020.030.030.35
YoY Growth--35.78%3,084.85%-68.80%-17.04%19.50%-14.10%-18.21%15.45%-92.82%-10.50%
Dividend Yield--3.70%2.82%0.12%0.35%0.65%0.72%0.54%0.62%0.55%8.05%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)14,255.44
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,390.89
(=) Cash Retained (M)11,864.54
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2,851.091,781.931,069.16
Cash Retained (M)11,864.5411,864.5411,864.54
(-) Cash Required (M)-2,851.09-1,781.93-1,069.16
(=) Excess Retained (M)9,013.4610,082.6110,795.38
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)17,081.1417,081.1417,081.14
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.530.590.63
LTM Dividend per Share0.140.140.14
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.530.590.63
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.670.730.77
WACC / Discount Rate6.42%6.42%6.42%
Growth Rate3.26%4.26%5.26%
Fair Value$21.83$35.27$70.15
Upside / Downside164.91%328.09%751.32%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)14,255.4414,862.5315,495.4916,155.4016,843.4117,560.7218,087.54
Payout Ratio16.77%31.42%46.06%60.71%75.35%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,390.894,669.437,137.709,807.7312,692.2415,804.6516,730.98

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.42%6.42%6.42%
Growth Rate3.26%4.26%5.26%
Year 1 PV (M)4,345.774,387.864,429.94
Year 2 PV (M)6,182.506,302.836,424.32
Year 3 PV (M)7,906.388,138.328,374.75
Year 4 PV (M)9,522.499,896.7610,281.96
Year 5 PV (M)11,035.7011,580.5212,146.65
PV of Terminal Value (M)341,885.49358,764.05376,302.76
Equity Value (M)380,878.32399,070.34417,960.37
Shares Outstanding (M)17,081.1417,081.1417,081.14
Fair Value$22.30$23.36$24.47
Upside / Downside170.61%183.53%196.96%

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