Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sanjiang Shopping Club Co.,Ltd (601116.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Grocery StoresSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.34 - $3.63$2.93
Multi-Stage$5.57 - $6.12$5.84
Blended Fair Value$4.39
Current Price$14.77
Upside-70.30%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%2.92%0.200.200.200.200.200.200.150.150.150.15
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%33.33%0.00%-0.63%0.64%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.77%2.16%1.32%2.39%2.15%1.52%1.11%0.73%0.51%1.49%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)135.96
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)109.54
(=) Cash Retained (M)26.43
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)27.1917.0010.20
Cash Retained (M)26.4326.4326.43
(-) Cash Required (M)-27.19-17.00-10.20
(=) Excess Retained (M)-0.779.4316.23
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)547.76547.76547.76
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.000.020.03
LTM Dividend per Share0.200.200.20
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.000.020.03
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.200.220.23
WACC / Discount Rate6.33%6.33%6.33%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$2.34$2.93$3.63
Upside / Downside-84.18%-80.13%-75.43%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)135.96134.60133.26131.92130.60129.30133.18
Payout Ratio80.56%82.45%84.34%86.23%88.11%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)109.54110.98112.39113.75115.08116.37123.19

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.33%6.33%6.33%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)103.32104.38105.43
Year 2 PV (M)97.4199.41101.43
Year 3 PV (M)91.7994.6397.53
Year 4 PV (M)86.4590.0493.73
Year 5 PV (M)81.3985.6390.04
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,589.782,724.642,865.05
Equity Value (M)3,050.153,198.723,353.21
Shares Outstanding (M)547.76547.76547.76
Fair Value$5.57$5.84$6.12
Upside / Downside-62.30%-60.46%-58.55%

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