Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

IKD Co., Ltd. (600933.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$87.64 - $214.29$200.82
Multi-Stage$31.10 - $34.05$32.55
Blended Fair Value$116.68
Current Price$22.73
Upside413.35%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS10.21%5.09%0.330.250.170.220.220.200.190.170.070.25
YoY Growth--30.82%46.02%-22.63%2.08%7.80%3.48%10.77%150.15%-72.33%27.35%
Dividend Yield--1.99%1.28%0.70%1.87%1.24%2.12%1.98%1.28%0.44%1.59%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,093.06
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)343.87
(=) Cash Retained (M)749.19
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)218.61136.6381.98
Cash Retained (M)749.19749.19749.19
(-) Cash Required (M)-218.61-136.63-81.98
(=) Excess Retained (M)530.58612.56667.21
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,014.451,014.451,014.45
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.520.600.66
LTM Dividend per Share0.340.340.34
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.520.600.66
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.860.941.00
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$87.64$200.82$214.29
Upside / Downside285.58%783.49%842.75%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,093.061,164.111,239.781,320.361,406.191,497.591,542.51
Payout Ratio31.46%43.17%54.88%66.58%78.29%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)343.87502.52680.34879.151,100.931,347.831,426.83

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)467.25471.68476.11
Year 2 PV (M)588.20599.40610.71
Year 3 PV (M)706.74727.03747.70
Year 4 PV (M)822.92854.57887.12
Year 5 PV (M)936.77982.021,029.00
PV of Terminal Value (M)28,032.1329,386.0930,791.88
Equity Value (M)31,554.0233,020.7934,542.51
Shares Outstanding (M)1,014.451,014.451,014.45
Fair Value$31.10$32.55$34.05
Upside / Downside36.84%43.21%49.80%

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