Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Shanghai Zhangjiang Hi-Tech Park Development Co., Ltd. (600895.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Real Estate - DevelopmentSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$27.22 - $135.95$56.93
Multi-Stage$21.30 - $23.32$22.29
Blended Fair Value$39.61
Current Price$54.95
Upside-27.92%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS19.31%6.96%0.780.160.530.360.360.320.280.360.290.29
YoY Growth--394.30%-70.24%49.37%-2.02%12.32%15.58%-22.91%26.75%-2.61%-26.31%
Dividend Yield--3.14%0.78%3.22%2.59%2.17%2.66%1.20%2.69%1.66%1.34%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,087.98
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)721.91
(=) Cash Retained (M)366.06
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)217.60136.0081.60
Cash Retained (M)366.06366.06366.06
(-) Cash Required (M)-217.60-136.00-81.60
(=) Excess Retained (M)148.47230.06284.46
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,570.491,570.491,570.49
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.090.150.18
LTM Dividend per Share0.460.460.46
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.090.150.18
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.550.610.64
WACC / Discount Rate6.20%6.20%6.20%
Growth Rate4.08%5.08%6.08%
Fair Value$27.22$56.93$135.95
Upside / Downside-50.46%3.60%147.40%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,087.981,143.211,201.251,262.231,326.311,393.641,435.45
Payout Ratio66.35%71.08%75.81%80.54%85.27%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)721.91812.63910.691,016.621,130.961,254.281,327.79

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.20%6.20%6.20%
Growth Rate4.08%5.08%6.08%
Year 1 PV (M)757.94765.22772.50
Year 2 PV (M)792.23807.53822.97
Year 3 PV (M)824.86848.87873.33
Year 4 PV (M)855.87889.24923.58
Year 5 PV (M)885.32928.67973.71
PV of Terminal Value (M)29,328.5130,764.8332,256.88
Equity Value (M)33,444.7335,004.3636,622.99
Shares Outstanding (M)1,570.491,570.491,570.49
Fair Value$21.30$22.29$23.32
Upside / Downside-61.25%-59.44%-57.56%

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