Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Dlg Exhibitions & Events Corporation Limited (600826.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Advertising AgenciesSector: Communication Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3.86 - $6.05$4.86
Multi-Stage$8.07 - $8.87$8.46
Blended Fair Value$6.66
Current Price$10.43
Upside-36.12%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-10.72%24.82%0.270.100.090.100.080.470.120.350.220.22
YoY Growth--178.96%2.41%-2.97%25.89%-83.74%284.58%-64.93%57.50%0.25%660.00%
Dividend Yield--3.46%1.48%1.35%1.56%1.26%6.30%1.42%3.63%1.20%1.13%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)285.57
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)208.03
(=) Cash Retained (M)77.54
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)57.1135.7021.42
Cash Retained (M)77.5477.5477.54
(-) Cash Required (M)-57.11-35.70-21.42
(=) Excess Retained (M)20.4341.8556.12
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)724.18724.18724.18
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.030.060.08
LTM Dividend per Share0.290.290.29
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.030.060.08
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.320.350.36
WACC / Discount Rate6.74%6.74%6.74%
Growth Rate-1.33%-0.33%0.67%
Fair Value$3.86$4.86$6.05
Upside / Downside-63.03%-53.38%-42.03%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)285.57284.62283.68282.73281.79280.85289.28
Payout Ratio72.85%76.28%79.71%83.14%86.57%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)208.03217.10226.11235.06243.94252.77267.58

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.74%6.74%6.74%
Growth Rate-1.33%-0.33%0.67%
Year 1 PV (M)201.35203.40205.44
Year 2 PV (M)194.50198.46202.46
Year 3 PV (M)187.53193.28199.16
Year 4 PV (M)180.50187.92195.58
Year 5 PV (M)173.46182.43191.76
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,909.785,163.685,427.97
Equity Value (M)5,847.116,129.176,422.38
Shares Outstanding (M)724.18724.18724.18
Fair Value$8.07$8.46$8.87
Upside / Downside-22.59%-18.85%-14.97%

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