Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Tianjin Port Co., Ltd. (600717.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Marine ShippingSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.46 - $3.65$3.03
Multi-Stage$5.97 - $6.58$6.27
Blended Fair Value$4.65
Current Price$4.65
Upside-0.01%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-3.13%-0.87%0.180.150.290.170.190.220.300.640.440.22
YoY Growth--24.22%-48.20%64.25%-8.53%-11.77%-27.69%-53.49%45.79%99.17%9.97%
Dividend Yield--3.89%3.39%7.04%4.06%4.58%5.67%5.61%11.36%6.45%3.80%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)880.68
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)247.70
(=) Cash Retained (M)632.98
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)176.14110.0966.05
Cash Retained (M)632.98632.98632.98
(-) Cash Required (M)-176.14-110.09-66.05
(=) Excess Retained (M)456.85522.90566.93
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,822.892,822.892,822.89
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.160.190.20
LTM Dividend per Share0.090.090.09
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.160.190.20
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.250.270.29
WACC / Discount Rate6.51%6.51%6.51%
Growth Rate-3.30%-2.30%-1.30%
Fair Value$2.46$3.03$3.65
Upside / Downside-47.07%-34.86%-21.52%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)880.68860.44840.67821.36802.48784.04807.56
Payout Ratio28.13%40.50%52.88%65.25%77.63%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)247.70348.49444.51535.94622.93705.64747.00

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.51%6.51%6.51%
Growth Rate-3.30%-2.30%-1.30%
Year 1 PV (M)323.84327.19330.54
Year 2 PV (M)383.87391.85399.91
Year 3 PV (M)430.10443.58457.34
Year 4 PV (M)464.56484.08504.21
Year 5 PV (M)489.04514.85541.74
PV of Terminal Value (M)14,759.9715,539.0916,350.76
Equity Value (M)16,851.3917,700.6518,584.51
Shares Outstanding (M)2,822.892,822.892,822.89
Fair Value$5.97$6.27$6.58
Upside / Downside28.38%34.85%41.58%

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