Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

CSSC Offshore & Marine Engineering (Group) Company Limited (600685.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Aerospace & DefenseSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3.42 - $4.75$4.09
Multi-Stage$6.01 - $6.63$6.31
Blended Fair Value$5.20
Current Price$27.39
Upside-81.02%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-18.30%-17.23%0.100.090.240.250.110.270.300.360.530.35
YoY Growth--10.91%-63.10%-6.10%130.63%-58.92%-12.48%-15.78%-32.08%53.87%-46.15%
Dividend Yield--0.42%0.33%0.97%1.50%0.45%1.89%1.88%1.59%1.59%1.18%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)845.12
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)98.20
(=) Cash Retained (M)746.92
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)169.02105.6463.38
Cash Retained (M)746.92746.92746.92
(-) Cash Required (M)-169.02-105.64-63.38
(=) Excess Retained (M)577.90641.28683.54
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,413.511,413.511,413.51
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.410.450.48
LTM Dividend per Share0.070.070.07
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.410.450.48
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.480.520.55
WACC / Discount Rate9.05%9.05%9.05%
Growth Rate-4.33%-3.33%-2.33%
Fair Value$3.42$4.09$4.75
Upside / Downside-87.51%-85.09%-82.67%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)845.12816.99789.79763.49738.07713.50734.91
Payout Ratio11.62%27.30%42.97%58.65%74.32%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)98.20223.00339.39447.77548.57642.15679.79

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.05%9.05%9.05%
Growth Rate-4.33%-3.33%-2.33%
Year 1 PV (M)202.38204.49206.61
Year 2 PV (M)279.51285.39291.32
Year 3 PV (M)334.68345.28356.11
Year 4 PV (M)372.09387.90404.20
Year 5 PV (M)395.29416.38438.37
PV of Terminal Value (M)6,915.857,284.937,669.59
Equity Value (M)8,499.808,924.379,366.20
Shares Outstanding (M)1,413.511,413.511,413.51
Fair Value$6.01$6.31$6.63
Upside / Downside-78.05%-76.95%-75.81%

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