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Definitive Analysis

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Shenergy Company Limited (600642.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Diversified UtilitiesSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$68.79 - $161.75$151.58
Multi-Stage$23.55 - $25.79$24.65
Blended Fair Value$88.12
Current Price$7.82
Upside1,026.79%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS26.55%12.41%0.600.160.200.280.220.190.190.200.190.19
YoY Growth--279.65%-20.00%-28.57%26.05%18.70%0.00%-9.09%10.00%0.00%-0.76%
Dividend Yield--6.78%2.00%3.39%4.60%3.56%3.53%3.22%3.56%2.97%3.07%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,978.29
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)732.76
(=) Cash Retained (M)3,245.53
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)795.66497.29298.37
Cash Retained (M)3,245.533,245.533,245.53
(-) Cash Required (M)-795.66-497.29-298.37
(=) Excess Retained (M)2,449.872,748.242,947.16
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)4,891.504,891.504,891.50
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.500.560.60
LTM Dividend per Share0.150.150.15
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.500.560.60
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.650.710.75
WACC / Discount Rate6.50%6.50%6.50%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$68.79$151.58$161.75
Upside / Downside779.63%1,838.36%1,968.37%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,978.294,236.884,512.284,805.585,117.945,450.615,614.12
Payout Ratio18.42%32.74%47.05%61.37%75.68%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)732.761,386.952,123.092,949.073,873.454,905.555,193.07

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.50%6.50%6.50%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,290.101,302.331,314.56
Year 2 PV (M)1,836.931,871.921,907.24
Year 3 PV (M)2,373.402,441.532,510.95
Year 4 PV (M)2,899.653,011.163,125.86
Year 5 PV (M)3,415.833,580.823,752.12
PV of Terminal Value (M)103,377.05108,370.20113,554.45
Equity Value (M)115,192.95120,577.95126,165.17
Shares Outstanding (M)4,891.504,891.504,891.50
Fair Value$23.55$24.65$25.79
Upside / Downside201.15%215.22%229.83%

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