DDM Analysis: 600628.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$15.94 - $18.85	$17.63
Multi-Stage	$74.30 - $83.13	$78.62
Blended Fair Value	$48.12
Current Price	$7.39
Upside	551.20%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-21.40%	-15.70%	0.06	0.06	0.10	0.11	0.12	0.19	0.26	0.16	0.14	0.28
YoY Growth	-	-	-4.50%	-40.24%	-8.73%	-10.25%	-35.85%	-27.70%	59.90%	20.81%	-50.98%	-11.69%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.78%	0.94%	1.33%	1.50%	1.45%	1.60%	3.36%	1.76%	1.10%	2.12%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	69.08
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	29.32
(=) Cash Retained (M)	39.76

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	13.82	8.63	5.18
Cash Retained (M)	39.76	39.76	39.76
(-) Cash Required (M)	-13.82	-8.63	-5.18
(=) Excess Retained (M)	25.94	31.12	34.58
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	607.96	607.96	607.96
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.04	0.05	0.06
LTM Dividend per Share	0.05	0.05	0.05
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.04	0.05	0.06
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.09	0.10	0.11
WACC / Discount Rate	-40.10%	-40.10%	-40.10%
Growth Rate	-12.33%	-11.33%	-10.33%
Fair Value	$15.94	$17.63	$18.85
Upside / Downside	115.67%	138.58%	155.06%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	69.08	61.25	54.31	48.16	42.70	37.86	39.00
Payout Ratio	42.45%	51.96%	61.47%	70.98%	80.49%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	29.32	31.82	33.38	34.18	34.37	34.08	36.08

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	-40.10%	-40.10%	-40.10%
Growth Rate	-12.33%	-11.33%	-10.33%
Year 1 PV (M)	52.53	53.13	53.73
Year 2 PV (M)	90.96	93.04	95.16
Year 3 PV (M)	153.73	159.05	164.49
Year 4 PV (M)	255.14	266.98	279.23
Year 5 PV (M)	417.55	441.92	467.40
PV of Terminal Value (M)	44,202.50	46,781.63	49,479.76
Equity Value (M)	45,172.41	47,795.75	50,539.77
Shares Outstanding (M)	607.96	607.96	607.96
Fair Value	$74.30	$78.62	$83.13
Upside / Downside	905.44%	963.83%	1,024.90%

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Shanghai New World Co., Ltd (600628.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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