Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Dawei Technology (Guangdong) Group Co., Ltd. (600589.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ChemicalsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.20 - $0.29$0.25
Multi-Stage$0.31 - $0.34$0.32
Blended Fair Value$0.29
Current Price$7.34
Upside-96.11%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS31.03%12.45%0.040.000.000.030.060.010.120.100.080.06
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%-100.00%-42.74%491.87%-91.80%20.71%25.83%23.14%445.70%
Dividend Yield--0.49%0.00%0.00%1.25%2.13%0.16%1.98%1.79%0.93%0.71%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)43.71
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)5.48
(=) Cash Retained (M)38.23
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)8.745.463.28
Cash Retained (M)38.2338.2338.23
(-) Cash Required (M)-8.74-5.46-3.28
(=) Excess Retained (M)29.4932.7734.95
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,436.101,436.101,436.10
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.020.020.02
LTM Dividend per Share0.000.000.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.020.020.02
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.020.030.03
WACC / Discount Rate9.66%9.66%9.66%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$0.20$0.25$0.29
Upside / Downside-97.21%-96.63%-96.03%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)43.7143.2742.8442.4141.9841.5642.81
Payout Ratio12.53%28.02%43.52%59.01%74.51%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)5.4812.1318.6425.0331.2837.4139.60

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.66%9.66%9.66%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)10.9511.0611.17
Year 2 PV (M)15.1915.5015.82
Year 3 PV (M)18.4118.9819.56
Year 4 PV (M)20.7721.6322.51
Year 5 PV (M)22.4223.5824.80
PV of Terminal Value (M)356.08374.62393.93
Equity Value (M)443.81465.37487.79
Shares Outstanding (M)1,436.101,436.101,436.10
Fair Value$0.31$0.32$0.34
Upside / Downside-95.79%-95.59%-95.37%

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