Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Zhejiang Sunriver Culture Co.,Ltd. (600576.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: EntertainmentSector: Communication Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$11.48 - $36.57$34.27
Multi-Stage$4.79 - $5.24$5.01
Blended Fair Value$19.64
Current Price$7.72
Upside154.42%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS69.30%19.82%0.020.010.020.020.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--21.45%-28.02%-21.45%1,288.53%45.86%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%-26.99%
Dividend Yield--0.18%0.21%0.24%0.38%0.03%0.03%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.01%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)192.60
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)22.91
(=) Cash Retained (M)169.69
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)38.5224.0814.45
Cash Retained (M)169.69169.69169.69
(-) Cash Required (M)-38.52-24.08-14.45
(=) Excess Retained (M)131.17145.62155.25
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,047.341,047.341,047.34
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.130.140.15
LTM Dividend per Share0.020.020.02
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.130.140.15
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.150.160.17
WACC / Discount Rate6.85%6.85%6.85%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$11.48$34.27$36.57
Upside / Downside48.75%343.96%373.74%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)192.60205.12218.46232.66247.78263.88271.80
Payout Ratio11.90%27.52%43.14%58.76%74.38%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)22.9156.4494.24136.70184.30237.50251.41

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.85%6.85%6.85%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)52.3352.8253.32
Year 2 PV (M)81.0082.5484.10
Year 3 PV (M)108.93112.06115.24
Year 4 PV (M)136.15141.38146.77
Year 5 PV (M)162.65170.51178.67
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,470.574,686.504,910.70
Equity Value (M)5,011.635,245.825,488.79
Shares Outstanding (M)1,047.341,047.341,047.34
Fair Value$4.79$5.01$5.24
Upside / Downside-38.02%-35.12%-32.12%

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