Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Tongyi Carbon Neutral Energy (Xinjiang) Co., Ltd. Class A (600506.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Agricultural Farm ProductsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.95 - $4.75$3.76
Multi-Stage$8.30 - $9.15$8.72
Blended Fair Value$6.24
Current Price$19.39
Upside-67.82%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%0.300.350.430.010.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---16.06%-17.04%7,240.70%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.58%2.53%3.79%0.05%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)53.95
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)25.49
(=) Cash Retained (M)28.46
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)10.796.744.05
Cash Retained (M)28.4628.4628.46
(-) Cash Required (M)-10.79-6.74-4.05
(=) Excess Retained (M)17.6721.7124.41
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)192.01192.01192.01
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.090.110.13
LTM Dividend per Share0.130.130.13
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.090.110.13
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.220.250.26
WACC / Discount Rate5.47%5.47%5.47%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$2.95$3.76$4.75
Upside / Downside-84.80%-80.61%-75.52%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)53.9553.4152.8852.3551.8351.3152.85
Payout Ratio47.25%55.80%64.35%72.90%81.45%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)25.4929.8134.0338.1642.2146.1848.88

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.47%5.47%5.47%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)27.9728.2628.54
Year 2 PV (M)29.9730.5931.21
Year 3 PV (M)31.5532.5233.52
Year 4 PV (M)32.7534.1135.51
Year 5 PV (M)33.6235.3737.20
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,438.431,513.341,591.33
Equity Value (M)1,594.301,674.191,757.30
Shares Outstanding (M)192.01192.01192.01
Fair Value$8.30$8.72$9.15
Upside / Downside-57.18%-55.03%-52.80%

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