Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Hangzhou Silan Microelectronics Co., Ltd (600460.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: SemiconductorsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$27.71 - $64.67$60.61
Multi-Stage$9.53 - $10.43$9.97
Blended Fair Value$35.29
Current Price$31.44
Upside12.25%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS2.05%12.44%0.110.220.180.090.080.100.080.050.040.05
YoY Growth---47.95%20.27%94.15%19.13%-23.57%32.99%45.39%28.03%-15.68%39.82%
Dividend Yield--0.47%1.09%0.49%0.19%0.32%0.71%0.44%0.33%0.65%0.81%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)540.05
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)178.36
(=) Cash Retained (M)361.70
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)108.0167.5140.50
Cash Retained (M)361.70361.70361.70
(-) Cash Required (M)-108.01-67.51-40.50
(=) Excess Retained (M)253.68294.19321.19
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,660.741,660.741,660.74
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.150.180.19
LTM Dividend per Share0.110.110.11
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.150.180.19
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.260.280.30
WACC / Discount Rate6.49%6.49%6.49%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$27.71$60.61$64.67
Upside / Downside-11.87%92.77%105.70%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)540.05575.16612.54652.36694.76739.92762.12
Payout Ratio33.03%44.42%55.82%67.21%78.61%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)178.36255.49341.90438.45546.12665.93704.96

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.49%6.49%6.49%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)237.67239.92242.17
Year 2 PV (M)295.85301.49307.18
Year 3 PV (M)352.94363.07373.39
Year 4 PV (M)408.94424.66440.84
Year 5 PV (M)463.86486.26509.53
PV of Terminal Value (M)14,067.8514,747.3315,452.82
Equity Value (M)15,827.1116,562.7417,325.93
Shares Outstanding (M)1,660.741,660.741,660.74
Fair Value$9.53$9.97$10.43
Upside / Downside-69.69%-68.28%-66.82%

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