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Definitive Analysis

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Zhuzhou Times New Material Technology Co., Ltd. (600458.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ChemicalsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$68.44 - $137.80$129.14
Multi-Stage$21.24 - $23.25$22.22
Blended Fair Value$75.68
Current Price$15.11
Upside400.88%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS44.66%17.76%0.250.140.080.120.020.040.050.100.050.02
YoY Growth--83.22%72.89%-36.00%400.00%-37.50%-20.00%-50.00%100.00%203.44%-66.67%
Dividend Yield--1.84%1.19%0.70%1.16%0.29%0.58%0.49%1.15%0.34%0.11%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)568.33
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)215.84
(=) Cash Retained (M)352.48
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)113.6771.0442.62
Cash Retained (M)352.48352.48352.48
(-) Cash Required (M)-113.67-71.04-42.62
(=) Excess Retained (M)238.82281.44309.86
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)820.20820.20820.20
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.290.340.38
LTM Dividend per Share0.260.260.26
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.290.340.38
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.550.610.64
WACC / Discount Rate6.35%6.35%6.35%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$68.44$129.14$137.80
Upside / Downside352.96%754.68%812.00%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)568.33605.27644.61686.51731.13778.66802.01
Payout Ratio37.98%48.38%58.79%69.19%79.60%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)215.84292.84378.95475.00581.95700.79741.86

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.35%6.35%6.35%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)272.76275.35277.93
Year 2 PV (M)328.75335.02341.34
Year 3 PV (M)383.83394.85406.08
Year 4 PV (M)438.00454.84472.17
Year 5 PV (M)491.27515.00539.64
PV of Terminal Value (M)15,503.7416,252.5817,030.07
Equity Value (M)17,418.3618,227.6319,067.23
Shares Outstanding (M)820.20820.20820.20
Fair Value$21.24$22.22$23.25
Upside / Downside40.55%47.08%53.85%

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