Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Beijing Sanyuan Foods Co., Ltd. (600429.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.44 - $2.39$1.86
Multi-Stage$2.52 - $2.77$2.64
Blended Fair Value$2.25
Current Price$4.67
Upside-51.82%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS1.96%10.21%0.110.060.120.090.110.100.080.010.020.03
YoY Growth--64.07%-47.56%35.65%-16.17%12.59%15.16%565.10%-35.13%-26.50%-34.27%
Dividend Yield--2.48%1.53%2.50%1.70%2.18%1.72%1.39%0.21%0.23%0.36%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)187.42
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)47.80
(=) Cash Retained (M)139.61
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)37.4823.4314.06
Cash Retained (M)139.61139.61139.61
(-) Cash Required (M)-37.48-23.43-14.06
(=) Excess Retained (M)102.13116.18125.55
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,511.061,511.061,511.06
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.070.080.08
LTM Dividend per Share0.030.030.03
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.070.080.08
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.100.110.11
WACC / Discount Rate6.85%6.85%6.85%
Growth Rate-0.04%0.96%1.96%
Fair Value$1.44$1.86$2.39
Upside / Downside-69.19%-60.19%-48.82%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)187.42189.21191.01192.84194.68196.54202.44
Payout Ratio25.51%38.41%51.30%64.20%77.10%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)47.8072.6798.00123.81150.10176.89187.25

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.85%6.85%6.85%
Growth Rate-0.04%0.96%1.96%
Year 1 PV (M)67.3368.0168.68
Year 2 PV (M)84.1585.8487.55
Year 3 PV (M)98.51101.49104.54
Year 4 PV (M)110.66115.16119.79
Year 5 PV (M)120.84127.01133.43
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,323.543,493.153,669.62
Equity Value (M)3,805.043,990.664,183.60
Shares Outstanding (M)1,511.061,511.061,511.06
Fair Value$2.52$2.64$2.77
Upside / Downside-46.08%-43.45%-40.71%

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