Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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KPC Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (600422.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$97.03 - $138.89$130.15
Multi-Stage$27.98 - $30.69$29.31
Blended Fair Value$79.73
Current Price$13.96
Upside471.15%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS9.16%1.97%0.230.190.310.270.240.150.060.220.240.09
YoY Growth--17.70%-36.63%13.64%12.62%62.36%130.72%-70.52%-9.95%161.71%-51.08%
Dividend Yield--1.33%0.93%1.48%2.22%2.88%1.49%0.60%2.17%1.94%0.62%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)530.05
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)26.16
(=) Cash Retained (M)503.90
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)106.0166.2639.75
Cash Retained (M)503.90503.90503.90
(-) Cash Required (M)-106.01-66.26-39.75
(=) Excess Retained (M)397.89437.64464.14
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)754.65754.65754.65
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.530.580.62
LTM Dividend per Share0.030.030.03
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.530.580.62
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.560.610.65
WACC / Discount Rate5.50%5.50%5.50%
Growth Rate4.89%5.89%6.89%
Fair Value$97.03$130.15$138.89
Upside / Downside595.05%832.34%894.92%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)530.05561.26594.31629.31666.36705.60726.76
Payout Ratio4.93%21.95%38.96%55.97%72.99%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)26.16123.19231.55352.25486.36635.04672.26

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.50%5.50%5.50%
Growth Rate4.89%5.89%6.89%
Year 1 PV (M)115.67116.77117.87
Year 2 PV (M)204.14208.05212.00
Year 3 PV (M)291.60300.02308.60
Year 4 PV (M)378.04392.66407.71
Year 5 PV (M)463.47485.99509.38
PV of Terminal Value (M)19,660.1720,615.4121,607.42
Equity Value (M)21,113.0822,118.9023,162.97
Shares Outstanding (M)754.65754.65754.65
Fair Value$27.98$29.31$30.69
Upside / Downside100.41%109.96%119.87%

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