DDM Analysis: 600391.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$6.33 - $27.07	$15.57
Multi-Stage	$3.74 - $4.08	$3.91
Blended Fair Value	$9.74
Current Price	$28.43
Upside	-65.75%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-6.33%	17.49%	0.15	0.13	0.12	0.10	0.13	0.21	0.03	0.21	0.03	0.03
YoY Growth	-	-	17.75%	10.40%	13.26%	-18.77%	-39.70%	594.96%	-85.77%	602.70%	0.00%	0.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.75%	0.75%	0.54%	0.48%	0.70%	1.30%	0.17%	1.06%	0.08%	0.07%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	44.77
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	38.40
(=) Cash Retained (M)	6.38

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	8.95	5.60	3.36
Cash Retained (M)	6.38	6.38	6.38
(-) Cash Required (M)	-8.95	-5.60	-3.36
(=) Excess Retained (M)	-2.58	0.78	3.02
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	327.27	327.27	327.27
(=) Excess Retained per Share	-0.01	0.00	0.01
LTM Dividend per Share	0.12	0.12	0.12
(+) Excess Retained per Share	-0.01	0.00	0.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.11	0.12	0.13
WACC / Discount Rate	6.78%	6.78%	6.78%
Growth Rate	4.97%	5.97%	6.97%
Fair Value	$6.33	$15.57	$27.07
Upside / Downside	-77.73%	-45.23%	-4.77%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	44.77	47.45	50.28	53.28	56.46	59.83	61.63
Payout Ratio	85.76%	86.61%	87.46%	88.30%	89.15%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	38.40	41.09	43.97	47.05	50.34	53.85	57.00

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.78%	6.78%	6.78%
Growth Rate	4.97%	5.97%	6.97%
Year 1 PV (M)	38.12	38.48	38.85
Year 2 PV (M)	37.84	38.56	39.29
Year 3 PV (M)	37.56	38.64	39.74
Year 4 PV (M)	37.27	38.71	40.19
Year 5 PV (M)	36.99	38.78	40.65
PV of Terminal Value (M)	1,034.80	1,085.04	1,137.22
Equity Value (M)	1,222.58	1,278.22	1,335.94
Shares Outstanding (M)	327.27	327.27	327.27
Fair Value	$3.74	$3.91	$4.08
Upside / Downside	-86.86%	-86.26%	-85.64%

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Aecc Aero Science and Technology Co.,Ltd (600391.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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